2021.03.05 12:28 jeru-1991 Is Xrd Rev 2 still active?
2021.03.05 12:28 NamelessSB Meh
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2021.03.05 12:28 itsblockchain Everything you need to know about NBA Top Shot : The What, The How, The Why, and more!
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2021.03.05 12:28 Brunofer29 Hola, es uno de mis primeros post en Reddit. Vale encontré esto en YT, antes que nada leer la descripción del video para evitar problemas :) Saludos desde LATAM
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2021.03.05 12:28 SeaZC_ my game is stuck in a low resolution
| i'm playing on PC and its forcing me to play with black bars for some reason. I've checked my AMD settings and there is nothing in there that suggests why i'm playing in a low res. if anyone knows why i'd love to know |
submitted by SeaZC_ to Soccermanager [link] [comments]
2021.03.05 12:27 dernala123 Kim Feenstra
2021.03.05 12:27 BurdPlane [SPOILER] Does genocide trigger even if you kill toriel before the monsters in the ruins.
2021.03.05 12:27 emmalayyy It’s a happy, happy day on our island... 🙌😂
|submitted by emmalayyy to AnimalCrossing [link] [comments]|
2021.03.05 12:27 -Samn- Escitalopram
2021.03.05 12:27 ZombieWalkn Good morning dear friends!
Hello my friends and happy Friday! We finally made it and got through the long week! Y’all have a great day and relaxing weekend. I’m always here for you all as you are very loved, appreciated and cherished so please send me any prayer requests if you need anything! Don’t forget to try and help someone going through a lot and struggling! Just a call/text can really mean a lot to someone!
“We then that are strong ought to bear the infirmities of the weak, and not to please ourselves. Let every one of us please his neighbour for his good to edification. For even Christ pleased not himself; but, as it is written, The reproaches of them that reproached thee fell on me. For whatsoever things were written aforetime were written for our learning, that we through patience and comfort of the scriptures might have hope.” Romans 15:1-4 KJV
Gospel of the grace of God: I Corinthians 15: 1-4 KJV❤️
submitted by ZombieWalkn to encouragement [link] [comments]
2021.03.05 12:27 Dasthewashinpowder Chimchar
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2021.03.05 12:27 emwhale Breakfast of CHAMPIONS!! (A breakfast survey for teens)
Here’s a survey all about your relationship with breakfast, it’ll take less than five minutes and memes ARE guaranteed in the deal ;)
breakfast survey for teens
submitted by emwhale to teenagersnew [link] [comments]
2021.03.05 12:27 NormanRB For real...
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2021.03.05 12:27 Hdd94 The slap be big
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2021.03.05 12:27 0toHeroInvesting Why $PTON Might Have Been a One-Year Unicorn - Complete DD
Do you like to invest in growth stocks? Are you also interested in subscription-based companies? Then today we are going to talk about one of 2020’s investor favorite, Peloton!
~Very Long Post - Don't Read If You Hate Long DDs~
We are going to take a look at their fundamental value, their DCF while we will also do a little technical analysis and get some price targets for the workout at home favorite for this year and for 2025 as I will give my opinion if Peloton still has room to grow or if this is was a one-year unicorn!
[Full Disclosure - I have no positions in Peloton, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next days]
So, what is Peloton and what do they do? They are a company that offers hardware fitness products like their Bike or Tread, but compared to your other traditional companies, they also offer subscriptions which allow you to watch live streams or on-demand classes that will help you with your home workouts.
You can also get these streaming products through their own Peloton app, which costs $13/month without any of their hardware devices, as Peloton mostly offers premium products that are targeting high end consumers, with their Tread starting from $2500 and up to $4300, while their Bikes are priced in the $1900 to $2500 price range.
They became a very popular stock in the past year as they saw a huge boost 🚀 in their revenues & earnings in 2020, as more & more people switched to home workouts, though it will be very interesting to see if this trend can continue after things start going back to normal.
So, guys, let’s go through the 2th quarter results for Peloton, as they use a different financial year, starting in the middle of the year!
Peloton released the latest earnings report at the start of February in which they beat both the top line by $30M and the bottom line, as the company posted an $0.18/share profit 🚀
The revenue generated in the last quarter and the number of connected subscriptions grew by over 120% yeayear, which was hugely boosted by the events we saw in 2020.
Peloton has 2 main streams of revenues, the connected fitness products and the subscriptions revenues.
You can see here the company made just over $1B in total revenues in the last quarter, which was an increase of 29% over the last quarter, continuing the uptrend started in 2020.
Peloton saw an increase of 45% in revenues from connected fitness products, even though they are still facing big delays in delivering their products to customers, with both bikes and treads seeing delivery time of over 6 weeks even now.
I believe this revenue stream growth will likely peak this year, which I expect to be the last one where workouts at home are the nr.1 way to stay in shape.
Meanwhile, their other revenue stream, the subscriptions revenue, has increased over 240% over the same period in 2019, and has increased 23% over the previous quarter.🚀
On the other hand, their cost of sales for both the hardware products as well as the subscription services has pretty much stayed the same, hovering over 60% for the hardware equipment and around 40% for the subscription services.
I don’t see how they will drastically improve this, so I will just slightly increase their margins by 1%/year for both revenue streams.
The other operating expenses are also pretty significant for the company, as they use over 13% of their revenues for General & Administrative purposes.
Peloton also invests 4.5% of their revenues back into R&D to continue to stay ahead of the competition, while the biggest chunk of the OpEx goes to sales & marketing which accounts for over 16% of their total revenues.
The company does have decent financials with over $2B cash, cash equivalents & marketable securities which can easily pay off the current and long-term liabilities of the company which stand at just under $2B.
Peloton has increased their capital expenditures in the past year, spending $120M in the last 6 months of 2020 compared to under $50M for the same period in 2019, and this will continue to increase, as they have a pending transaction to acquire Precor for over $400M in cash.
The company has continued to increase the depreciation & amortization expenses, which will have a positive impact on their EBITDA, while on the other hand, they have pretty insignificant other incomes & expenses on their bottom line, with just $1.8M added to the bottom line in the last quarter of 2020.
Not all companies do, but Peloton gives pretty detailed data which allows us to easily calculate the net working capital of the company for the DCF numbers, though you should always dig deep through the financials as Pelton has once major problem, which is the share dilution of the company.
We can see HERE , the company has almost 300M shares outstanding, but the bigger problem is that they have massively increased the number of shares available, up from 160M in 2019 and are planning to continue to dilute their stock as they are giving out a big number of stock options for their employees, with over 50M shares just in the last 3 months of 2020 💩
This stock compensation plan is based on their 2019 equity incentive plan, which continued after their 2015 plan. In this plan the company allows up to 5% of the total outstanding shares to be granted until 2029, which will continue to add pressure to the price of the stock. 💩
The other risk factors that the company mentioned are the increasingly competitive market they operate in, a possible decline in their Bike & Tread sales and of course the supply chain issues, which have affected the company for the past year
The company itself points out the fact that they just become profitable in the past 2 quarters after losing money in each year since their inception, but provided an upbeat guidance for Q3, as they expect to continue to add additional sales regions for their products in 2021, while also closing the deal with Precor, which will help them in their manufacturing process
So, folks, taking into account the financials of the company, their outlook and my own projections for the growth of company I made some predictions, but please remember, this is not investment advice & do your own Due Diligence before investing!
Let’s start with the discounted free cash flow projections to see what the current valuation of the company is.
I started from their current earnings before interest & tax which stand at 7% of their revenues currently. I implied a 2% annual growth for this, as the company will become more profitable as they scale up their business.
The company has a very short history for their effective tax rate, which was way below the 21% US tax rate, but given that most tech companies manage to get substantially better effective tax rates, I think a 15% for Peloton is realistic.
I also added back their D&A for which I implied the same growth rate as the one for their revenues, but we will discuss the revenue growth in a couple of minutes.
Peloton will need to continue to invest in Capex to be able to scale up their business, while their net working capital is expected to decline as they will slowly start to build up inventories after the huge supply crisis that they faced starting in 2020.
So, folks, for an 9.5% discount rate, which is what I will use for the moment, we get just over $3.6B in discounted free cash flows by 2026. This rate is a combination of the average sp500 return and the current yield of the 10year Treasury bill which stands around 1.5%.
As always, there are 2 methods of doing the valuation from here, the EBITDA multiple valuation, for which we get a $152.5 price target and the Perpetuity Approach for which we get a $100 price target.
You might be wondering why I used a 19x EBITDA approach for Peloton, well I chose an average between the 25x multiple for Technology and 14x multiple for the fitness industry.
Folks, I wouldn’t pick one or the other valuation, so I like to use an average approach, which would result in a PRICE target of $126.58 or a 17% upside for the stock in the next 12 months
Given all of this, I think now is the time to move on to a longer-term valuation of the company based on the growth projections I have for Peloton.
I believe we can continue to see a significant growth for their sales of fitness products in the next years, but this growth will slow down in the future, as we slowly get over this stay-at-home environment, even if we never fully go back to the way things were.
I believe the bigger growth stream will come from their subscription service, as they continue to improve the products they offer, including their Peloton App which doesn’t even require you to own their hardware.
For the cost of sales, as I said previously, I only implied a 1% annual improvement of their margins on both revenue streams as I also maintained their average from the previous 2 years regarding the other operating expenses like SG&A and R&D.
Given these numbers & projections, we get a gross profit for Peloton of just over $2B by 2025. But there are many other things that we have to take into account like the Capex spending, which I believe will continue to see an increase of at least 5%/year and the interest & other income & expenses, which for Peloton are pretty insignificant.
So, the bottom line I think we will see for Peloton in 2025, including an estimated 15% effective tax rate is just under $1.7B.
The last important thing to take into account when doing long-term valuations is how the number of outstanding shares will continue to evolve, and in this case, I believe we will continue to see at least a 5% dilution for Peloton stock in the next years, which would mean by 2025 we would see almost 356M shares.
So, after all these estimates what are my price targets for the company in the long-run?
I always like to value companies on future P/E multiples, so, with a $4.69 EPS and depending on what P/E multiple you chose between 25 and 40, we can see the stock can trade in a range between $117 and $187
We should also always take a look at what other analysts estimate for the stock, and we can see, there is not much coverage on the stock, but the other analyst predicted an even lower EPS by 2025.
Folks, my final price targets for Peloton by 2025 range between $129 for the Bear case, $152 for the base case and almost $176 for the bull case, implying gains between 19% and up to 63% on the stock, which I believe are not that interesting, as you can usually get similar returns by just investing in index funds, ETFs ore other stocks with much lower risk factors.
So yeah guys, these are my OVERALL price targets for the next 12 months and for 2025, let me know what is your opinion and if you believe I am undervaluing or overvaluing the company in the comments below where you can also find the link to the full spreadsheet!
But now, you are probably wondering, what do I expect in the next couple of days, weeks and months for Peloton?
Let’s start by looking at this CHART. We can see Peloton was trading on huge volumes towards the end of last year with 30-40M shares/day on multiple occasions, which we saw again once the Precor news popped up.
Since that moment, the stock seems to have fallen out of favor, as the volume has consistently stayed below 10M shares/day. The stock is pretty oversold right now after the recent sell-off caused by the spike in treasury yields, but has a decent support line near the $108 levels, though I believe it will face major resistance to break $138 again given the fact that no major catalysts are expected soon, as most of the earnings and revenue growth is already priced in the stock price.
Folks, I always check what other wall street analysts think of the stock, and it seems in this case they are massively overvaluing the company in my opinion with 23 bullish ratings and just 2 bearish views, with an average price target of $165.
So, are you asking yourself, what would I do?
Well, I would mostly stay away from this stock💩, as I believe there are far better opportunities out there in the stock market, but if you like you can nibble a little and buy some Peloton after this big sell-off, as the stock is down a lot from its all-time highs.🚀
Yeah guys, these are my projections and my expectations for the company, I think Peloton will struggle to enter households with more than 1 of their products, as you can see, only 3% of their customers use both a bike and a tread, which given the huge price tags of their products is understandable.
I also believe the big % of people that are paying month to month their Peloton subscriptions is another reason for concern, as people are much more likely to ditch those once normal gyms become more attractive once again, and as you can see HERE, the trend was not working that much in their favor before 2020, with modest increases in fitness subscriptions & quarterly workouts, while their total revenue and average monthly workouts were even going the wrong way.
And finally, after comparing my projections to Peloton’s own guidance, which is way lower than my predictions, it’s obvious the company itself doesn’t expect this insane growth to continue, and even if they do continue to expand in multiple countries, not many countries outside the US will really enjoy their products which are very expensive for most of the countries in the world.
Thank you everyone for reading🙏 Hope you enjoyed the content! Be sure to leave a comment down below with your opinion on the stock market! Have a great day and see you next time❗
submitted by 0toHeroInvesting to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]
2021.03.05 12:27 cope85 My Ongoing Myocarditis Saga
35 year old male here, first diagnosed with myocarditis at 18, after a bout with Mono. It came back a couple of times in my early 20’s but there was no discernible pattern. Now, it came on suddenly in November. I tried to explain it away as awful heartburn, but it kept escalating, so I left work and drove to the ER. By the time I got there I was sure I was having a full on heart attack, but they made me wait in the car for someone to come out and screen me for COVID. I called 911 twice while I waited. I’m not sure why, maybe I was afraid of dying alone. Once they finally got me in, troponin was elevated above 5. I live in a small town the high Rockies, so they decided to fly me to Denver to a bigger hospital. It took a long time to find an ICU bed with COVID, so by the time I got there troponin was in the 80s. They ruled out blockage with angio, confirmed myocarditis with echo, left ventricular EF of 40%. This was devastating news. I’m an athlete. Or was anyway. They kept me for 4 days until the pain was tolerable. They prescribed the traditional heart failure cocktail of beta blocker and ACE inhibitor, with colchicine for inflammation. I followed up a few weeks later with the local cardiologist. Echo showed some improvement to 48%, but I was still experiencing chest pain daily, along with dizziness and nausea and feeling fatigued with exertion. I would vomit frequently. I thought all this was side effects form the medications. The cardiologist said that was unlikely, and it slowly dawned on me that my symptoms weren’t side effects, but the result of my “new” heart. Cardiologist decided to add Max dose ibuprofen around the clock. Did this for a month with no change in symptoms. Followed up again, and after discussing my case with his research colleagues in Denver, he admitted that the ibuprofen was contraindicated and not a good idea, and put me on prednisone. I’ve since had a cardiac MRI mid February, which showed the left ventricle “sub normal” with EF of 50%. It also showed “evidence of prior infectious myocarditis,” which of course makes sense, except that I still have symptoms, which is puzzling to the cardiologist. He’s sending me to his colleagues at the university. I’ve tried an anti inflammatory diet with no results, and really feel at a loss/helpless as to how to approach this anymore. Anyone who’s been though it that has any ideas or suggestions, please share. I’m all ears.
submitted by cope85 to myocarditis [link] [comments]
2021.03.05 12:27 dante_user Sanremo 2021 - Neon Genesis Evangelion
2021.03.05 12:27 patrina925 Get your free bitcoin now! What are you waiting for?
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2021.03.05 12:27 Aemberflyx I love to eat fire
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2021.03.05 12:27 Fury-7 IBS OverMonth pain in the genitals please help /tips/recommendation/ideas
Hello everybody hope Y'all doing great i want to share my story and want to have answers from your experiences from ibs.
male : age 21 weight 54 kg height 6ft
so over month exactly i ate junk food (potato and cheese) not first time, after 7 hours i did drink energy drink 355ml called power horse not first time (i occasionally drink energy drinks) after half hour I felt breathing hot air and getting super tired, the next day when I woke up I was having severe stomach pain and I want to pharmacy to get something to help my pain I got Peptazol tried for one day and didn't like it it made me a lot worse, then I went to the clinic gave me metronidazole 200mg for 7 days 3x and other medicine but i couldn't pass 3 days taking metronidazole it made everything worse and i barley can sleep and it made it worse then i went to another bigger clinic with gastrologist they run multi test blood test, stool test, ultra sound no kidney stones liver,gallbladder,spleen, pancreas, iv&aorta, both kidneys fine ub is normal no ascites was seen basically every thing is fine. but the breath test didn't pass 10 min they made me blow in balloon i generally wanted to do Lactose & Glucose Hydrogen Breath Test 3 hours to get better result because i think i have sibo and i want to get rifaxmin to kill all bacteria in my stomach then everything came fine the doctor want to do colonoscopy but i don't like the idea i want to get medicine to kill the bacteria. but the the closest appointment one month later to do 3 hour breath test.
low grade fever over month
pain : in stomach
waking up multiple times during the night
have no Diarrhea
stress because of pain all time
note: didn't vomit once but i almost
testicle pain recently 3 days ago after i had stomach issue over month
bottom line : i don't like that i have testicle pain sometime (all time) ( probably bacteria moving through body) no swelling or other issue other than pain
i was normal person one month ago now everything going downhill i hate everything
any tips ideas to reduce stress any tips/ help recommendation, will be greatly appreciated thanks in advance.
submitted by Fury-7 to ibs [link] [comments]
2021.03.05 12:27 one2youknowwhattodo Kenmore Machine is stickint
My sister in law has a Kenmore 12 stitch sewing machine and we got it running lastnight with no issues and by the end of our short session it started to be really resistant. Even to turn the wheel, it got increasingly harder. Not sure where the resistance is coming from, any ideas where I should be focusing my attention?
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2021.03.05 12:27 DrEggsZ Karma whore won't delete repost because of 2.5 k Karma
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2021.03.05 12:27 CarlosSmithudemy [Free] Social Media Marketing Course -The Step by Step Guide
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2021.03.05 12:27 15-street World music instagram
2021.03.05 12:27 ijustwantanime This person is making this flour skeleton on the floor and there are even bugs crawling across it